EveryBody Wants To Be Rich

Every investor/trader in stock markets want to be richer than his/her closest rival. That intense greed to outdo each other in this intense battle often lead to irrational exhuberance in the assets that they are struggling for and hence can take their valuations beyond imaginations, and that too within a very short span of time. As long as this intense greed keeps on rising with every passing moment, stocks will continue to remain expensive and volatile as compared to other assets. There has to be some corrective phase in order to restore sanity in the average investor/trader's mind. Who knows what can cause that corrective phase, but when it happens, it will be very painful for all the market participants.

Yen Is Weakning Against The US Dollar

Yen is trading at 117.20 against the US dollar after showing considerable strength in the month of August when subprime mortgage mess unfolded in the US and yen carry trade unwinding started. It seems at around 113 levels, lot of carry trade happened as japanese central bank doesn't increased it's benchmark interest rate and japanese as well as oversees investors/hedge funds/PE funds still wanting to have a pie of cheap funds available in yen currency, have them invested in riskier yet high yield assets of emerging economies lke India, China, HongKong, Taiwan, Russia. This is causing tremendous price rises in these assets and thus is a cause of concern in the short term.

RestLess Markets

For the past 4 years which saw unprecedented bull run in stocks and commodities, participants have become restless due to extremely hightened greed prevailing in their mind set as they try to outdo each other with a wide margin. This greed feeds irrational exhuberance among investors/traders and hence cause extreme inflation in assets and consumer articles. Coming times will no be different and hence stocks will continue to outperform any other asset class for a long time to come.

US Job Data

US job data released by labour department beat earlier forecast by experts of 60,000 jobs being added versus fresh data depicting that jobs that added infact are 90,000. This data can make US federal reserve pause in it's rate cut spree. It's very essential for US central banker to hold it's rates so that dollar can be hold steady against Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar. If he cuts the rates then it might again unleash huge liquidity to riskier assets, which alredy are extreme inflated levels. Also central banks of US and European countries should slow down the level of printing their currency if they want to have financial markets in healthy shape and avoid bursting of equity and commodity bubble in an abrupt manner.

Dow Jones Erupts Again

Dow Jones staged a remarkable 200 point rally yesterday with a strong belief that US fed will again cut the interest rates by 50 basis points in October. Dollar also got support from stock rally. Crude oil also cools down a bit but still hovering around US$80/Barrel. US economy is still not out of deep problems and hence dollar investors are rushing to buy into riskier assets of emerging markets like India, Taiwan, Singapore, HongKong, driving valuations of assets(stocks) in these markets to absurd levels. Well so far so good, if US fed listens to market participants and don't follow economics rationale, then we may be heading for another rate cut and further inflated asset prices.

Will He Or Won't He

I believe this time US federal reserve will not cut interest rates as turmoil in financial markets from US subprime mess has been contained well and all the stock markets are either re-claiming their old heighs or making new heighs. If he does cut the rates then it will pump more dollars into the riskier assets like stocks and commodities, with more weakness in dollar. This will further create inflation among already hyper inflated riskier assets and make them more vulnerable to sudden shocks resulting in huge instability in the credit and financial markets. Thus for the sake of overall health of financial markets, US fed must not cut rates this time around, we already have enough of cheap money roaming around.

Inflated Equities

Falling dollar is inflating riskier assets like stocks and commodities. Emerging market stocks especially in china, India, Taiwan, Singapore are amid tremendous upward momentum due to huge flow of dollars from dollar investors and this has created extremely expensive equity valuations in some of these markets, especially in India and China. Crude oil too is continously trading above US$80/Barrel and stock markets are ignoring this important commodity price completely. History is evident that whenever crude oil has skaled a new peak, equity too has formed new high! As long as financial markets expect US federal reserve to cut interest rates, equity valuations will continue to be very expensive.

Consolidation

Equity markets across the world are consolidating gains they have made in the past few trading sessions with european,U.S.,asian markets displaying subdued trading sessions.
Market players will also be keenly waiting for U.S.Fed decision on rate cuts this september. Any rate cut will give further boost to emerging markets. Dollar has been under pressure against the yen and euro for the past few days with market players now wanting to buy riskier assets like stocks and dump dollar. Noise levels from U.S. sub-prime mortgage markets has been waining and is a welcome sign.

Asian Markets Are Taking A Breather Today

Today all Asian markets except China, are taking breather after moving up for the last couple of days. It seems investors and traders are back again in buying riskier assets like emerging market stocks, currencies and bonds. Crude oil is also trading below U.S.$70 per barrel mark and is a welcome sign. Yen seems to be stabalising around 116 mark against the U.S.Dollar. Agri commodities are however, ruling strong due to inevitable reason that population is growing and due to global warming, floods and other natural peril's will keep demand far more than the actual supply of these farm outputs.

Not all money is credit

Markets have been bearing the brunt of mahem in the U.S. sub-prime mortgage with several U.S., Europeon and U.K. funds going burst.
Investors and traders believe that all markets have risen because of cheap credit pouring in the markets, however this is paritally true as people do have their own money to invest in case oppurtunity arises, because if all was borrowed money then markets for the past few trading sessions would not have been found the support of new buyers!

Smart buyers have been utilising this sharp fall in equities as a buying oppurtunity and are putting their own money.

Excessive borrowed money can only inflate the valuations of given assets to artificial levels but any cracks in that credit cycle can turn that tide against the borrower as he has to return the money to original lender and he does that in panic as we have seen for the past few weeks. Therefore investng with own money is the only rational strategy one must adopt.

Bonds are rallying

U.S. bonds for the past two weeks are rallying due to carnage in the stocks, as investors/traders flock to safer money avenues in these highly uncertain and volatile times in order to protect their capital from any sharp drop in stocks.

They are not bothered at the moment about low returns from bonds but rather concerned about capital erosion from risky assets like stocks. They are right in their approach as sometimes remaining in cash can give excellent buying opportunities in blue chip stocks in case they fall sharply because of some external reasons not related to their business performance.

Reason For This Carnage

Market players always try to find reasons for market falls as and when it happens, this time around excessive credit lending to not--trust-worthy people(having very low credit score) in the sub-prime mortgage market is sited as the main culprit behind steep stock market fall as they have de-faulted on their loan obligation. But i say excessive GREED was, is, and will always be the biggest culprit behind every melt down in the asset prices.

Markets Are Down Again

Dow Jones fell again by 200 points yesterday and asian markets are follwing the downward trend early this morning.
Yen is trading at 117.20 against the U.S.dollar as of now, this is also a cause of concern as this will further increase the yen carry trade unwinding by levearaged players and insitutions and hence pulling out of funds from riskier assets like stocks and commodities.
Volatility is back again in the markets and is a cause of concern for those who are planning to invest. Investors hate huge uncertainity surrounding the markets and thus postpone their buying decision and prefer to park their money in safe assets like U.S.dollar and Goverment securities thus making stock markets deprieve of much required funds.
Unless and untill this nervousness fades away, investors will not be in a rush to buy riskier assets like stocks.