Thursday, September 27, 2007

Inflated Equities

Falling dollar is inflating riskier assets like stocks and commodities. Emerging market stocks especially in china, India, Taiwan, Singapore are amid tremendous upward momentum due to huge flow of dollars from dollar investors and this has created extremely expensive equity valuations in some of these markets, especially in India and China. Crude oil too is continously trading above US$80/Barrel and stock markets are ignoring this important commodity price completely. History is evident that whenever crude oil has skaled a new peak, equity too has formed new high! As long as financial markets expect US federal reserve to cut interest rates, equity valuations will continue to be very expensive.