Saturday, November 10, 2007

Cutting Interest Rates Alone Won't Solve All Problems

Merely assuming that central banks will have to cut rates in order to restore confidance and calm in the financial markets is seriously wrong. Because cheap money along with rising commodity prices is always a lethal combination that can cause seriuos damage to asset valuations. Stocks in case are an example where valuations have run way ahead of ground realities in most parts of the globe, are now experiencing weakness due to sharp rise in commodities like crude oil, wheat, rice, maize, gold, silver, steel, along with falling dollar value against major currencies, continued turmoil in credit markets in the US, persistent tension in the gulf region, major deterioration in the climate. I fail to understand how major banks have given almost US$ 2.5 trillion to those people who don't have the capacity or intention to pay back! This credit crisis was bound to haunt financial markets, now financial stocks are bearing the brunt for their unrelenting greed to lend just to make quick profits. Weakness in the US markets is likely to be prolonged than most participants think, and it will induce that weakness in the emerging markets too.